A homeowner in one of Dripping Springs' older subdivisions opened her April appraisal notice this year and did the thing everyone does: skimmed straight to the number. It was up. Taxable value on her three-bedroom had climbed several thousand dollars from the year before. She closed the envelope assuming her house was worth more than it had been in 2025.
Two weeks later a nearly identical floor plan two streets over went under contract for less than she'd paid in 2022.
Both numbers were correct. That's the part that trips people up.
The Appraisal District Is Looking at 2025. The MLS Is Looking at This Week.
Hays County released its preliminary 2026 property values in early April, and the countywide number was startling: appraised value up 9.69%, to $76.75 billion. In Dripping Springs specifically, average residential market values rose 3.2%, from $594,294 to $613,247, and taxable values rose faster still, up 6.9%, from $538,424 to $575,471. Wimberley ISD saw one of the largest jumps in the county, with taxable values up roughly 11%.
Meanwhile, over the three months ending May 2026, homes in Dripping Springs sold for a median of $515,000, down 4.9% from the same window a year earlier, and sat on the market an average of 87 days compared with 80 days the year before. Countywide, the March 2026 median sale price was $377,000, down 2.6% year over year, with days on market stretching to 104.
So which is it? Is Hays County getting more valuable or less?
Both, depending on what you're measuring. The appraisal district's number is a snapshot as of January 1, built largely on the previous year's activity and heavily weighted by commercial and multifamily growth, not single-family resale. Commercial and industrial values in the county jumped 24% year over year to $7.47 billion, and multifamily values rose 17%, from $4.05 billion to $4.76 billion. Residential values, the appraisal district itself noted, "have generally remained flat" underneath that headline number. The county's own framing tied the growth to population, which has now crossed 300,000.
The MLS number is a live read of what buyers are actually willing to pay this month, in a market where they suddenly have far more to choose from.
The Real Story Is Sitting on the Lot Next Door
Here's the mechanism that reconciles both numbers, and it's the part that doesn't show up on a tax notice: Dripping Springs and its extraterritorial jurisdiction have more than 8,000 new homes permitted right now, spread across a wave of master-planned communities that are still filling in.
- Headwaters, off Highway 290, has roughly 1,000 permitted residential lots with builders including David Weekley, Dream Finders, Drees, and Taylor Morrison.
- The Ranches at Caliterra is expanding with Drees, David Weekley, and Scott Felder Homes, with premium estate lots phasing in through 2026.
- Double L Ranch, near Ranch Road 12, covers 1,600 acres with more than 2,200 homes planned.
- Wild Ridge, adjacent to Big Sky Ranch, has more than 900 homes planned.
None of that inventory existed at scale even three years ago. It's arriving now, and builders are competing hard to move it. That competition shows up as rate buydowns, design credits, and closing cost assistance, often in the range of $10,000 to $40,000 per home depending on the builder and the month.
Do the math on what that actually means. A new build listed at $750,000 with a temporary rate buydown and $30,000 in design credits is competing at something closer to $680,000 to $700,000 in real, felt cost to the buyer. A resale home three streets away, built in 2019 or 2020, doesn't have a builder standing behind it offering to buy down the buyer's rate. It just has a list price and a seller hoping for the number an online estimate showed last year.
That's why the segment feeling the most pressure right now is existing homes built roughly between 2018 and 2021, priced in the $600,000 to $900,000 range. They're not competing against other resale listings anymore. They're competing against a builder's marketing budget.
What the Appraisal Notice Actually Governs, and What It Doesn't
This is the piece worth sitting with if you own property in the Dripping Springs or Wimberley corridor right now: your appraisal notice sets your tax bill. It does not set your resale price. Those are two entirely separate systems running on two entirely separate clocks, and 2026 is the year they've come apart.
| What it measures | What drove the 2026 number | Where you'd see it | |
|---|---|---|---|
| County appraisal | Taxable value as of Jan. 1 | Commercial and multifamily growth, population gains | Your April tax notice |
| MLS resale price | What a buyer paid this month | New-construction supply and builder incentives | A closed sale on the MLS |
If you're planning to sell in the next twelve months, the appraisal notice is close to irrelevant to your pricing conversation. What matters is the same comparable-sales analysis it's always been, just now filtered through the question of what a builder down the road is offering on a brand new version of your house.
If you're not selling, the appraisal notice matters quite a bit. Hays County property owners had the right to protest this year's valuation through the Hays County Appraisal Review Board, with a filing deadline of May 15 or 30 days from the date the notice was mailed, whichever came later. That window has closed for 2026, but the same calendar repeats every spring: notices go out around April 1, and the protest clock starts the day yours arrives. A rising appraisal on a home whose resale value is flat or falling is exactly the situation that annual protest window exists for, so it's worth putting on next year's calendar now rather than remembering it in May.
The Cost That Never Makes It Onto the Listing Sheet
There's one more number buyers comparing new construction to resale in Dripping Springs need to ask about directly, because it rarely shows up until the closing disclosure: Municipal Utility District taxes. Many of the newer PID and MUD-governed communities layer an additional $0.80 to $1.20 per $100 of assessed value on top of standard property taxes, to fund the roads, water, and sewer infrastructure that a raw subdivision needed built from scratch. On a $450,000 home, that can add roughly $300 to $400 a month, a cost that doesn't appear anywhere in the builder's glossy price sheet or the "starting from the mid-$400s" marketing line.
That's not a reason to avoid new construction. It's a reason to ask the question before you fall for the incentive math. A resale home in an established subdivision without a MUD, or with a MUD that's largely paid down, can end up costing less monthly than a new build with a lower sticker price once that tax layer is added in.
What This Means Depending on Which Side of the Table You're On
If you're selling an existing home in the $600,000 to $900,000 range built in the last five to seven years, your competition isn't the house down the block anymore. It's whatever a builder is currently offering three miles away, incentives included. Price and market accordingly, and be ready to talk through what your home offers that a brand new build can't, an established yard, mature trees, a neighborhood with no more phases under construction.
If you're buying, ask for the effective price on every new construction offer, meaning list price minus the real value of the rate buydown and any credits, before you compare it to a resale listing. And ask directly whether the community carries a MUD or PID assessment, and what the current rate is, before you fall in love with a floor plan.
If you're a current owner just watching your tax notice climb, remember that number and your home's market value are being generated by two different processes right now. One doesn't confirm the other.
A Few Questions Worth Asking Directly
Does a rising appraisal mean my home would sell for more? Not necessarily, and not right now. The appraisal reflects a Jan. 1 valuation shaped heavily by commercial and multifamily growth countywide. Resale prices reflect what buyers are paying today against a much larger pool of new-construction competition.
Should I protest my appraisal if my home's resale value seems to be falling? If your taxable value rose while comparable homes in your subdivision are selling for less or sitting longer, that's a reasonable basis for a protest through the Hays County Appraisal Review Board. The 2026 window closed in May, but the district mails notices every April 1, so mark the date and pull your comparable sales as soon as this year's notice arrives.
Are all Dripping Springs neighborhoods affected the same way? No. Established, amenity-rich communities with limited additional phases tend to hold value better than areas where several more phases of the same builder product are still under construction next door. Luxury custom homes on larger acreage tend to sit somewhat apart from this pressure entirely, since that buyer is shopping for something a production builder can't replicate.
Hays County's numbers aren't contradictory. They're measuring two different things at two different speeds, and knowing which one applies to your decision is most of the battle.
If you're weighing a move within the Hill Country and want a read on what a specific number, whether it's a tax notice, a builder incentive, or a comparable sale, actually means for your situation, Topper Real Estate is glad to walk through it with you. Schedule your Hill Country consultation and get a straight answer before you sign anything.
